What’s on the horizon for digital, mobile and social in 2012? Here’s what the Barkley digital team is watching for in the coming year.

Ecommerce Surges
Online retail sales are growing steadily as consumers continue to shift their buying to the web. In the third quarter, US e-commerce sales increased 14% compared to the same period a year ago. Cyber Monday in 2010 set a record for online spending and 2011 passed that mark by 33%. Of the 53 chain stores in the Internet Retailer Top 500, 48 saw web growth exceed comp store sales. Watch for “brick and click” companies to beef up digital efforts in that growing channel and downsize inefficient stores.

Amazon is quickly becoming the gatekeeper of e-commerce. Amazon continues torrid growth above industry benchmarks and will add more distribution centers. Additionally, their advertising platform for product ads continues to impress advertisers using cost-per-click strategies. Any brick and mortar marketer has one goal in 2012: don’t allow your store to be a place where your customers test drive products and finish the purchase on Amazon.

Mobile Adoption
Consumers will buy $10 billion worth of goods on mobile devices this year, according to the Internet Retailer Mobile Commerce Top 300 Guide. 37% of the Internet Retailer Top 500 now offer dedicated m-commerce sites, up from only 12% a year ago. We’ll see that number climb even higher this year. While just showing up may put you ahead in the battle for customer traffic, m-commerce has several key areas to focus on. We have helped many clients properly mobilize, rather than miniaturize.

Tablets are no longer for early adopters as Apple is expecting to sell almost 20 million iPads in 2011 and Amazon and Barnes & Noble introduced their lower priced tablets. Yet many websites are lacking in tablet-friendly site designs and suffer from usability problems.

Mobile adaptation is also changing the in-store experience. Several tablet apps allow your store employees to check out customers in the aisles so they never need to stand in line at the register. And look for 2012 to see major advances in mobile wallet technology and NFC-enabled devices where customers simply wave their mobile device at the register.

According to data from Yahoo/Nielsen, 86% of web users now use a mobile device while watching TV. That creates new opportunities for marketers to launch more interactive campaigns, and startups such as Shazam are creating platforms for engaging with the “second screen” audience.

Video Penetration
With online video surpassing 50% penetration of the general population, eMarketer is predicting online video ad spending to grow over 40% in 2012. In fact, they estimate it will grow by a compound annual rate of 38% in a five-year span ending in 2015, making this by far the fastest rising category of online spending.

As it becomes more difficult to justify investing millions in a continually diminishing TV environment, look for more brands to shift to online. There they can flex their muscle while spending more efficiently–for the cost of one primetime :30 spot, they can instead be on YouTube’s homepage all day. Speaking of YouTube, they’ve started a serious content strategy to transform from being seen as just a place for goofy homemade videos. The demand will spur the measurement companies to aim to deliver the accepted industry standard metrics. Additionally, look for companies to begin to monetize personal video, as family memories are one of the most important possessions we have.

With videos helping e-commerce conversions and reducing returns, watch for increased video usage in online retailing. CPG and brand manufacturers should be giving their retail partners original video content and “how-to’s” in order to spur sales. Nearly three-quarters of online retailers feature video on their sites, up from 55% a year earlier.

The Google Imperative
Changes in Google’s algorithms will be the impetus that pushes marketers who are behind the curve. Pleasing Google in search engine optimization efforts will be a full time job for digital marketers and website development teams. Digital teams are getting a push thanks to Google’s emphasis on fresh content, mobile optimization, social networks, site speed, and video in determining search engine results pages.

Look for Google to make a play for our living rooms, as monetizing video is their next great frontier. Google will take on cable and satellite providers and look for consolidation with media streaming companies.

Smart marketers will think about the ramifications of Siri for iPhone users. If an iPhone user asks Siri to find the closest Mexican restaurant or jewelry store, all your search engine marketing won’t matter. Search engine optimization strategies will have to adapt.

Social Media
eMarketer predicts worldwide social network advertising revenue will reach $8 billion next year. Social media marketing is becoming increasingly crowded as more businesses fight for eyeballs in social networks. Innovators and early adopters of social media marketing have become savvy, raising the bar for later entrants. Leading firms will push the envelope and lagging firms will see no return from using old tactics. Successful firms will realize that digital natives expect that valuable information will come to them from their network rather than sources they search out.

The power of referrals and recommendations will be harnessed to encourage potential customers to follow their friend’s leads. With an ever increasing social network footprint, and the explosion of data fueling it, expect networked recommendations to become more ubiquitous. Companies such as Extole allow online marketers to incentivize referrals. Influencer marketing will take on all new importance and get a seat at the table. Discovering those who can help you reach your desired consumer will become exponentially more effective. Companies such as Klout and BzzAgent already command six figures for campaigns. All of this will lead to further evolution of “Like” buttons and social sharing tools.

Organizations will increasingly rely on social technologies to listen and examine. The vast data generated from social media gives marketers a richer level of insight into their customers’ habits and attitudes. The ability to extract meaningful information is an increasingly important challenge in the near future. Mining platforms for actionable insights will become a core measurement approach for brands.

Expect new job announcements with titles such as “Community Manager” or “Community Facilitator.” More companies will be adding these types of functions. These front line employees will be closely integrated with customer service to handle resolutions on the spot.

Finally, 2012 will see more companies dipping their toe into social media commerce. F-commerce will be a phrase used more commonly as many retailers have announced success integrating their storefront into Facebook. Smaller brands are finding integration solutions with their e-commerce platforms or new third party vendors.

The Customer Experience
Most of our clients tell us they provide the best value and quality. If everyone is communicating that message, where does anybody stand out? With competitive barriers to entry dissolving and unforeseen competitors bringing new disruptive ideas, the price, access, and quality imperatives become less of an opportunity. So we are entering what Forrester calls the “Age of the Customer.” Can your website hold an intelligent conversation with a returning customer? Can it analyze individual behavior and respond with appropriate navigation? Can your customer service reps resolve an issue without transferring a customer? You competitors’ can.

One of the most important customer service needs to figure out will be free shipping. As many retailers lower their order threshold for receiving free shipping, some are already giving free shipping with no minimum amount. Expect more companies to financially figure out free shipping. Then they will put their stake in the ground and force competitors to meet their offer.

Content Marketing
When it comes to marketing strategies, content marketing has been crowned king. These tactics are especially important for today’s B2B marketer, who sees content marketing as more valuable at generating leads than even search marketing. While this strategy is favored for generating qualified leads and engaging prospects in a branded environment, its popularity is increasing due to search engine algorithms placing increased importance on original content.

Watch for the line to blur between publisher and retailer. Retailers have started to embrace editorial as a spark for e-commerce, while publishers increasingly add merchandise to reinvent themselves and add revenue streams.

Daily Deal Craze
Look for a shakeout in the daily deal market. While service businesses may like Groupon and their ilk for putting customers in seats that would otherwise go unsold, other retailers with hard cost of goods are not getting a return on these deals. The market won’t be able to sustain the daily deal sites that keep cropping up while retailers tell horror stories of bad campaign results.

Unfortunately, coupon hunting is a sport now and consumers will remain bargain hunters. So don’t look for the discount economy to go away. Instead, the survivors will be larger companies that diversify their offerings or those that go very niche. Other winners will be those that can get hyper-local, with mobile and geo-based offers. But we will also see many marketers use new software to build and host their own deals and cut out the middleman.

Online Sales Tax Issues
Congress is attempting to give the states the power to mandate online sales tax collection. The Marketplace Fairness Act legislation was introduced to authorize states to require online and catalog retailers with more than $500,000 in annual out-of-state sales to collect sales tax. Many states already have “Amazon laws” aimed at collecting tax to fill revenue shortfalls. This is an issue that bears watching for any marketer using an affiliate program, as affiliates create a nexus in these tax-collecting states.

This will be a major issue to stay on top of in 2012. The war is complicated with many interested parties. The fight pits pure play online e-tailers versus brick and mortar stores. Those with physical stores want a level playing field while the online sellers are reframing the issue as big retailers attempting to crush small competitors.

Global Commerce Opportunities
To keep sales growth growing, and shareholders happy, retailers either need to sell more to current customers or find new ones. And that is where international e-commerce comes in. Additionally, many businesses feel “tapped out” on new website traffic sources and new markets are filled with millions of potential new customers.

Many issues need to be considered when going global to avoid common pitfalls. In addition to obvious language differences, other considerations include: local duties & taxes, shipping carriers, fulfillment, import/export regulations, and return solutions. Fortunately, e-commerce platforms are now removing some of the hurdles to international sales and may vendors offer turnkey solutions.

Photo credit: Michael Coghlan